During these last days of the Presidential campaign, it seemed that a newly developing buzzword was not just a word but an entire country; China somehow began to creep up into the campaign's consciousness, and "being tough on China" started to become the new line in the sand for the next president of the United States. The question then becomes just how did China, a country of more than a sixth of the world's population, manage to stay hidden in the shadows and all of a sudden become a major wrench in American gears? My intuition is that not only is China objectively not as big an issue as it's made out to be, but that instead it acts as a place-holder for the rapidly expanding developing world in political conversations.
Looking at China from a relativist stand-point, there really isn't much to fear, let alone much to criticize. Although China's military capability looks quite large on paper, it's been known for some time that their full military capability simply is not comparable to western powers, (i.e. 60 years behind the air-craft carrier technology race) let alone powers of nations surrounding it. The nuclear issue runs essentially the same path. China, like Russia, understands that the Cold War has come and gone, and nuclear security now means keeping their own warheads secure for their own good. More importantly, if a nuclear issue were to even begin peeking its head from around the corner, China understands that it would not just deal with one central pole of opposition like the United States, but instead multiple nuclear armed powers in its neighborhood who, not knowing China's full intentions, would practically rush out of the woodwork to secure their own interests. There simply is no reason short of madness to ring all those alarm bells all at once.
Socio-economically speaking, China's situation becomes a little trickier to calibrate, but in the end it all still points to fire-less smoke. Since the reforms of the 90's China is now the world's largest economy, but it is the world's largest economy that undoubtedly plays in a capitalist world as much as that annoys Beijing, which means the days of the Chinese bubble are like all bubbles numbered. China still refers to itself as a communist country, and does not shy away from its authoritarian labels of dissent suppression. However like all countries in this modern age, the Chinese central government is susceptible to the same popular threats that social media provides when it comes to information dispersal, organization capabilities, and grassroots social strengthening. The facade that China has had for decades about it being an impenetrable, social cookie cutter, economic leviathan is, much like its burgeoning economy, had its days numbered.
To add to all this supposed animosity, China has been much more willing to cooperate in the international scene than it is normally given credit for. Blocks against action in Syria have been rebounded with economic sanction assistance against Iran. Lawsuits filed on the part of the United States in the WTO regarding Chinese trade practices have been rebuffed by talks about economic development in Europe. There is even talk of Chinese ambitions to curb their carbon emissions, a topic that even some politicians in much more affluent countries fail to grasp on to today. Given that China isn't as scary, as reclusive, and as closed-minded as some may want it to be for their own political gain, what exactly does one mean when they mention China?
In order to answer this question, it's important that we detach the word "China" from China itself. This may sound like useless semantics, but "China" in reality is a term for all developing countries around the world. Six or eight years ago, the "developing world" was a buzz-word designed for countries beginning to step out of the third-world category, but not yet strong enough to be considered legitimate competitors. Unfortunately for those of us not paying attention over that time-frame, the "developing countries" have evolved into "almost fully developed countries". The subtle change could not be of greater importance; even sequoias at one point or another were saplings, and that is exactly the sort of surprise that this economic downturn in the developed world has revealed. China, India, Brazil, and Turkey have reported more than positive GDP growth, with other countries, particularly in Asia following closely behind. Not only is GDP an indicator of this, but so too are student test scores, general affluence, and in some countries the recognition or reinforcement of women's rights.
"China" as understood as a standard-bearer for all "almost developed countries" is indeed frightening for leaders in countries that could only dream of having real GDP growth or population growth at the same levels. The combination of an open door invitation to the free-trade market-space that the developed world has touted for so long teamed along with deplorable but highly lucrative labor practices makes these "almost developed" exports a peril for established economies that have been hurt for almost half a decade. More importantly without being able to claim to be the unsurpassed leaders of the global economy, a world that responds less and less to forceful coercion and much more to the national bottom-line begins to take a much less glorifying opinion of the old world guard, thereby diminishing the influence on non-economic affairs.
It would help then if candidates, or any future elected leaders for that matter, would stop making claims about being particularly tough on a single country or citing specific but minute lawsuits designed to keep "the meek of the world" in check and instead begin designing a comprehensive guide for how to deal with the "developing world". It is crucial that American and European leaders recognize the fact that "developing countries" are no longer developing, and that they have instead already built the engines they need to power their economies. Realizing that China is not a stand-alone problem is what is needed to actually address the greater issue of a whole host of new countries coming to seriously compete and looking to beat the established leaders of the world. If that isn't run, the leaders of the "developed world" seriously run the risk of being jumped by not one but several crouching tigers.
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Looking at China from a relativist stand-point, there really isn't much to fear, let alone much to criticize. Although China's military capability looks quite large on paper, it's been known for some time that their full military capability simply is not comparable to western powers, (i.e. 60 years behind the air-craft carrier technology race) let alone powers of nations surrounding it. The nuclear issue runs essentially the same path. China, like Russia, understands that the Cold War has come and gone, and nuclear security now means keeping their own warheads secure for their own good. More importantly, if a nuclear issue were to even begin peeking its head from around the corner, China understands that it would not just deal with one central pole of opposition like the United States, but instead multiple nuclear armed powers in its neighborhood who, not knowing China's full intentions, would practically rush out of the woodwork to secure their own interests. There simply is no reason short of madness to ring all those alarm bells all at once.
Socio-economically speaking, China's situation becomes a little trickier to calibrate, but in the end it all still points to fire-less smoke. Since the reforms of the 90's China is now the world's largest economy, but it is the world's largest economy that undoubtedly plays in a capitalist world as much as that annoys Beijing, which means the days of the Chinese bubble are like all bubbles numbered. China still refers to itself as a communist country, and does not shy away from its authoritarian labels of dissent suppression. However like all countries in this modern age, the Chinese central government is susceptible to the same popular threats that social media provides when it comes to information dispersal, organization capabilities, and grassroots social strengthening. The facade that China has had for decades about it being an impenetrable, social cookie cutter, economic leviathan is, much like its burgeoning economy, had its days numbered.
To add to all this supposed animosity, China has been much more willing to cooperate in the international scene than it is normally given credit for. Blocks against action in Syria have been rebounded with economic sanction assistance against Iran. Lawsuits filed on the part of the United States in the WTO regarding Chinese trade practices have been rebuffed by talks about economic development in Europe. There is even talk of Chinese ambitions to curb their carbon emissions, a topic that even some politicians in much more affluent countries fail to grasp on to today. Given that China isn't as scary, as reclusive, and as closed-minded as some may want it to be for their own political gain, what exactly does one mean when they mention China?
In order to answer this question, it's important that we detach the word "China" from China itself. This may sound like useless semantics, but "China" in reality is a term for all developing countries around the world. Six or eight years ago, the "developing world" was a buzz-word designed for countries beginning to step out of the third-world category, but not yet strong enough to be considered legitimate competitors. Unfortunately for those of us not paying attention over that time-frame, the "developing countries" have evolved into "almost fully developed countries". The subtle change could not be of greater importance; even sequoias at one point or another were saplings, and that is exactly the sort of surprise that this economic downturn in the developed world has revealed. China, India, Brazil, and Turkey have reported more than positive GDP growth, with other countries, particularly in Asia following closely behind. Not only is GDP an indicator of this, but so too are student test scores, general affluence, and in some countries the recognition or reinforcement of women's rights.
"China" as understood as a standard-bearer for all "almost developed countries" is indeed frightening for leaders in countries that could only dream of having real GDP growth or population growth at the same levels. The combination of an open door invitation to the free-trade market-space that the developed world has touted for so long teamed along with deplorable but highly lucrative labor practices makes these "almost developed" exports a peril for established economies that have been hurt for almost half a decade. More importantly without being able to claim to be the unsurpassed leaders of the global economy, a world that responds less and less to forceful coercion and much more to the national bottom-line begins to take a much less glorifying opinion of the old world guard, thereby diminishing the influence on non-economic affairs.
It would help then if candidates, or any future elected leaders for that matter, would stop making claims about being particularly tough on a single country or citing specific but minute lawsuits designed to keep "the meek of the world" in check and instead begin designing a comprehensive guide for how to deal with the "developing world". It is crucial that American and European leaders recognize the fact that "developing countries" are no longer developing, and that they have instead already built the engines they need to power their economies. Realizing that China is not a stand-alone problem is what is needed to actually address the greater issue of a whole host of new countries coming to seriously compete and looking to beat the established leaders of the world. If that isn't run, the leaders of the "developed world" seriously run the risk of being jumped by not one but several crouching tigers.
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4 comments:
It really could have been better done. You focus on the disingenuousness of using China as a proxy for the developing/developed world, which may or may not be true (the fact that China doesn't see themselves as particularly competitive might need to be investigated more), but you fail to address any of the arguments made about China by either of the major party candidates or their proxies. Is China a "currency manipulator" or isn't it, and if so, does it matter? Does China dump products on the US market, and if so, does it matter?
Granted, these arguments may require more time, but if it is important for China, then answering these questions is also important for Brazil, Turkey, and other countries, both that you call out and that you do not. If those questions aren't important, you still need to say why they aren't important.
Jake,
They aren't important because specific countries will always try to gain any advantage they can in cases of global competition which is a separate topic as you suggested. Now I may not have made it specific enough, but I don't think that when either Obama or Romney say the word China they mean this new group of countries; I was making the point that the conversation about China is too minute to make a difference, when the conversation about the entire newly developed world actually fits better in the rhetoric that both use when campaigning. The bad part of it is that neither has really addressed what they are really trying to bring up; that America is losing competitiveness in ways that it can't stop (at least I don't think anyone will be sending in Marines to wipe out Indian telecom companies). As far as a case by case study of just how competitive or not competitive a specific country is, no, I will not address that here because of the scope and scale of that sort of project. I will say this though, that countries have no arbiter among each other, so that means that each country only reports to its own moral code (or that of its leaders) in how fairly it wishes to play with others. That being said, the article really was more of a critique on the views American and western leaders have on these newly developed countries, not necessarily how competitive they may specifically be.
It's less a separate topic than you imagine, and it's called comparative advantage.
Basically, without getting too deep into the weeds, the political arguments against China, whether specifically or as a proxy for BRIC and other rapidly developing countries, is rank protectionism and political pandering. Economically, it's meaningless. It works politically because mercantilism is easier to understand than actual capitalism (most criticisms of capitalism are actually criticisms of pseudo-capitalism that has been overtaken by mercantilist dogma).
Be careful that when you advise that countries have no arbiter between them that you are not falling into the same dogmatic trap of half-truths and misunderstandings. While it is true that there is no arbiter between countries (let's leave the effectively toothless WTO out for the time being), it is really only half the truth. It is always in each country's businesses' best interest to act faithfully in the interests of their customers, whether they are domestic or foreign customers. You can think of trade as an infinite series prisoner's dilemma, and any action taken in bad faith comes at the highest cost of the participant who acts in bad faith first, since they are likely to be blocked from participation in all future iterations.
I'll also say that rather than "Don't start no shit, won't be no shit," I prefer the saying by Frederic Bastiat, "When goods do not cross borders, soldiers will."
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