Archive of Past Special Blog Events and Posts
Election 2012 Edition
This is how SpeedBlogging works; instead of outlining one long post about a specific subject, this page will be updated as the night goes on to reflect the sudden changes and breaking news during Election Day. As a suggestion, it might be best to follow along with your favorite news source to be up to date with what specific discussion is being held. If you are not following along with your favorite pundit, rest assured there will be enough links on this page to keep you up to date. Be sure to check back often and stay updated!
You can follow the SpeedBlog on the Academy Facebook Page to stay tuned to discussion questions and keep up to date on all the topics being discussed on here!
You can follow the SpeedBlog on the Academy Facebook Page to stay tuned to discussion questions and keep up to date on all the topics being discussed on here!
Session Update #11 8:10PM PST
This was going to be an update to the West Coast and then all of the networks began calling the race for Obama. So, it seems like it's all over, unless Ohio goes down the wire and if Florida and Virginia also end up in re-count situations. Regardless it all seems to have finally wound down, and we are essentially in the same place as what we were in before the election. Hopefully, this means that with essentially no re-election to look forward to, President Obama should have a "blanker check" to do what he wants to do. In fact, going back to InTrade, the probabilities of Assad staying in power by the end of 2012 and 2013 have both fallen significantly. What's going to be more interesting is how the markets are going to open tomorrow morning, given that the business man was snubbed by the American people. Eventually we will get a better understanding of what has happened in the coming weeks as President Obama begins coming out of campaign mode and get back into gear. I will say this, the way things are looking now, a re-count might actually be in the plans if Romney does not decide to immediately concede. All three major states are still in play and could give Romney more support heading into a general re-count.
Session Update #10 7:20PM PST
Remember when I said more analysis was on the way? That's before I realized that the next wave of states were not the most exciting of results. Here's something interesting though, while exit polls are rather high in difference in all states that are being immediately reported at their close, none of the main networks have called a specific winner in these almost obvious exit polls (Obama in Iowa and Romney in Montana). Essentially, the tightness of the race is forcing news networks from being able to call these almost finished races. What might be drawing back these exit polls is the Senate Races which seem to be much more competitive than the Presidential election at least when it comes to immediate exit polls. Is this a good idea? To me, not so much, mostly because the difference in Senate races and Presidential races is in the focus of the money in these areas, as well as the specificity of ads that are run. The messages are so different that comparing Senate races to Presidential exit polls would not give the best accuracy one way or another.
Session Update #9 6:50PM PST
Obama has taken Pennsylvania, which bodes well for his chances and takes the edge off of late-game Romney campaign spending, considering the final push in Pennsylvania these last two days. Expect another major update when the next polls close in 10 minutes. Analysis coming up then.
Session Update #8 6:20PM PST
Romney continues his sweep of the American Heartland, meanwhile Obama picks up New York, New Jersey, and Michigan. Essentially what this tells us is that the base for both these candidates has come out; rural voters for Romney and labor voters for the President. What this also tells us is that the auto bailout has effectively secured Michigan for the President (or at the very most has not angered enough people to cost him the state) and could spill over into other Labor-heavy constituencies like Ohio. Keep in mind that a very early point of contention for this election cycle was labor laws stemming from Gov. Walker of Wisconsin, and that battle lines were already being drawn in a sense during his recount. So here is the third question of the night, has this election come down to the same point of contention that kicked it off in the first place, to labor-votes? Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #7 5:50PM PST
Romney is beginning his sweep of the south as Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas have all been assigned to Gov. Romney. Texas is already being given to Romney by CNN. We have essentially gone into the early twilight stage of the election; basically, until all of Florida, Virginia and Ohio have been counted, breaking news will be few and far in between. Perhaps by the time the ballot closures hit the West Coast, we might all have a better idea of who will win.
Session Update #6 5:00PM PST
This just in, President Obama has won the entire Northeast minus New Hampshire. What a shocker. Meanwhile, Romney carries Oklahoma. With still several states closed at 8:00PM EST, as of this writing the President is ahead by 24 points. Exit polls in key battleground states keep hovering around a dead heat leaning towards President Obama. It seems then that in almost all of these battleground states, Obama keeps maintaining slim but still important leads. This may be a hunch, but it could be that while the overall race has tightened the effects on individual states may not have been enough to dictate an outright tie among the two candidates. What does this mean? Simply that the electoral college rules would not show close races in their full extent. The winner take all approach would not show even the closest of races, only that one candidate has won a particular precinct, county or state. That could possibly mean that if these small leads for Obama hold, or if the opposite is true again, this election could go for a long time, but ultimately end as a blowout for one of these two candidates.
Session Update #5 4:50PM PST
Watching CNN, I'd like to make a non-election related comment. Of all the advertisements on television, of all the groups that are pushing their particular agenda on voters, those who appear as concerned citizens asking for the American people to be "Energy Voters" or voters who are energy conscious need to also mention that if you are an "Energy Voter" you are also buying into the lie of Clean Coal or clean fossil fuels. "Clean" does not mean absolutely clean, it means relative clean, in that clean coal is cleaner than dirty coal. It does not mean that we've somehow figured out a way to not burn fossil fuels without generating ecological negative externalities, just that they've been reduced. If I cannot go on television and advertise a product that lies about its effects on people, why can energy companies aware of the fragility of their public image create dramatizations of supposedly "cleaner than it actually is" energy situations? It doesn't seem right. What campaign ad are you happy to finally see off the air? Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #4 4:30PM PST
Updates, Romney is now being given Indiana officially, meaning that the Mourdock comments have not derailed the Romney ticket at least in the state where his comments were the loudest. It seems then that the connection between Mourdock and Romney, as well as the anti-women charge on Romney, has not stuck as effectively as it may have needed to have been for the Obama camp. It's an interesting insight and perhaps one that may repeat itself in other battlegrounds tonight. At 4:32PM PST, CNN has also given West Virginia to Romney. Romney now has a 21 point lead over Pres. Obama. Exit polls in North Carolina and Ohio show a practical heat, if not a sliver-wide edge towards president Obama. This may or may not have just told us how long of a night we will have.
Session Update #3 4:15PM PST
New returns have just come in and here is the story; CNN is reporting Vermont going to Obama and Kentucky going to Romney. No surprises there. In Virginia however, CNN exit polls are following up with a tie of 49-49% in Virginia. To be quite honest, I am surprised that Obama is holding on this well to Virginia. On my big board, I have him losing Virginia as well as Florida, but that's neither here nor there. If Obama is able to carry Virginia, then Romney's path to the White House gets obviously tougher, and our night gets obviously shorter. So what's the deal in Virginia? Why is the race so close? Is it just early exit poll jitters? I am going to take the safe bet and assume that is the case. I believe that while Virginia might still go Republican at the end of the night, it might act like a litmus test for less contested states, or for states that expected high Republican turnout, showing perhaps a pattern of raised Obama competitiveness in states that may not have seemed like it this morning. Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #2 3:55PM PST
Here is the first legitimate update of the night. The polls now show that Kentucky and Indiana are the first states to begin reporting any sort of results. As expected there is a sharp boost for these two historically Red states early in the exit polls, but the important question here goes back to Indiana. Indiana has been made infamous in the late weeks of the campaign because of Republican Senate Candidate Richard Mourdock's statements regarding rape. He too, so far, is ahead in early exit polls, although he had lost significant ground to his Democratic opponent before the election went live. So here is my question to you, did Mourdock's comments on rape have any effect on the Indiana race considering his current lead? Follow us on the Academy Facebook Page to answer and follow the conversation on there!
Session Update #1 3:30PM PST
So here we go! Thanks to everyone who is visiting tonight from the United States and around the world. The premise here is simple; news comes in, analysis comes out. Hopefully, discussion follows and we all get to have our say beyond what the TV networks have time for. As a bit of info, the first polls to close will be on the East Coast at 7:00PM EST, notable states are Virginia and Florida among others of course. The next main time to watch will be 7:30PM EST when Ohio and North Carolina close. So far, with what little results have come in, it seems that we still do not know who the next President of the United States is. I apologize for not being able to give you that information as of yet.
Pre-Session Update 12:30PM PST
This was going to be an update to the West Coast and then all of the networks began calling the race for Obama. So, it seems like it's all over, unless Ohio goes down the wire and if Florida and Virginia also end up in re-count situations. Regardless it all seems to have finally wound down, and we are essentially in the same place as what we were in before the election. Hopefully, this means that with essentially no re-election to look forward to, President Obama should have a "blanker check" to do what he wants to do. In fact, going back to InTrade, the probabilities of Assad staying in power by the end of 2012 and 2013 have both fallen significantly. What's going to be more interesting is how the markets are going to open tomorrow morning, given that the business man was snubbed by the American people. Eventually we will get a better understanding of what has happened in the coming weeks as President Obama begins coming out of campaign mode and get back into gear. I will say this, the way things are looking now, a re-count might actually be in the plans if Romney does not decide to immediately concede. All three major states are still in play and could give Romney more support heading into a general re-count.
Session Update #10 7:20PM PST
Remember when I said more analysis was on the way? That's before I realized that the next wave of states were not the most exciting of results. Here's something interesting though, while exit polls are rather high in difference in all states that are being immediately reported at their close, none of the main networks have called a specific winner in these almost obvious exit polls (Obama in Iowa and Romney in Montana). Essentially, the tightness of the race is forcing news networks from being able to call these almost finished races. What might be drawing back these exit polls is the Senate Races which seem to be much more competitive than the Presidential election at least when it comes to immediate exit polls. Is this a good idea? To me, not so much, mostly because the difference in Senate races and Presidential races is in the focus of the money in these areas, as well as the specificity of ads that are run. The messages are so different that comparing Senate races to Presidential exit polls would not give the best accuracy one way or another.
Session Update #9 6:50PM PST
Obama has taken Pennsylvania, which bodes well for his chances and takes the edge off of late-game Romney campaign spending, considering the final push in Pennsylvania these last two days. Expect another major update when the next polls close in 10 minutes. Analysis coming up then.
Session Update #8 6:20PM PST
Romney continues his sweep of the American Heartland, meanwhile Obama picks up New York, New Jersey, and Michigan. Essentially what this tells us is that the base for both these candidates has come out; rural voters for Romney and labor voters for the President. What this also tells us is that the auto bailout has effectively secured Michigan for the President (or at the very most has not angered enough people to cost him the state) and could spill over into other Labor-heavy constituencies like Ohio. Keep in mind that a very early point of contention for this election cycle was labor laws stemming from Gov. Walker of Wisconsin, and that battle lines were already being drawn in a sense during his recount. So here is the third question of the night, has this election come down to the same point of contention that kicked it off in the first place, to labor-votes? Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #7 5:50PM PST
Romney is beginning his sweep of the south as Alabama, Georgia and Arkansas have all been assigned to Gov. Romney. Texas is already being given to Romney by CNN. We have essentially gone into the early twilight stage of the election; basically, until all of Florida, Virginia and Ohio have been counted, breaking news will be few and far in between. Perhaps by the time the ballot closures hit the West Coast, we might all have a better idea of who will win.
Session Update #6 5:00PM PST
This just in, President Obama has won the entire Northeast minus New Hampshire. What a shocker. Meanwhile, Romney carries Oklahoma. With still several states closed at 8:00PM EST, as of this writing the President is ahead by 24 points. Exit polls in key battleground states keep hovering around a dead heat leaning towards President Obama. It seems then that in almost all of these battleground states, Obama keeps maintaining slim but still important leads. This may be a hunch, but it could be that while the overall race has tightened the effects on individual states may not have been enough to dictate an outright tie among the two candidates. What does this mean? Simply that the electoral college rules would not show close races in their full extent. The winner take all approach would not show even the closest of races, only that one candidate has won a particular precinct, county or state. That could possibly mean that if these small leads for Obama hold, or if the opposite is true again, this election could go for a long time, but ultimately end as a blowout for one of these two candidates.
Session Update #5 4:50PM PST
Watching CNN, I'd like to make a non-election related comment. Of all the advertisements on television, of all the groups that are pushing their particular agenda on voters, those who appear as concerned citizens asking for the American people to be "Energy Voters" or voters who are energy conscious need to also mention that if you are an "Energy Voter" you are also buying into the lie of Clean Coal or clean fossil fuels. "Clean" does not mean absolutely clean, it means relative clean, in that clean coal is cleaner than dirty coal. It does not mean that we've somehow figured out a way to not burn fossil fuels without generating ecological negative externalities, just that they've been reduced. If I cannot go on television and advertise a product that lies about its effects on people, why can energy companies aware of the fragility of their public image create dramatizations of supposedly "cleaner than it actually is" energy situations? It doesn't seem right. What campaign ad are you happy to finally see off the air? Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #4 4:30PM PST
Updates, Romney is now being given Indiana officially, meaning that the Mourdock comments have not derailed the Romney ticket at least in the state where his comments were the loudest. It seems then that the connection between Mourdock and Romney, as well as the anti-women charge on Romney, has not stuck as effectively as it may have needed to have been for the Obama camp. It's an interesting insight and perhaps one that may repeat itself in other battlegrounds tonight. At 4:32PM PST, CNN has also given West Virginia to Romney. Romney now has a 21 point lead over Pres. Obama. Exit polls in North Carolina and Ohio show a practical heat, if not a sliver-wide edge towards president Obama. This may or may not have just told us how long of a night we will have.
Session Update #3 4:15PM PST
New returns have just come in and here is the story; CNN is reporting Vermont going to Obama and Kentucky going to Romney. No surprises there. In Virginia however, CNN exit polls are following up with a tie of 49-49% in Virginia. To be quite honest, I am surprised that Obama is holding on this well to Virginia. On my big board, I have him losing Virginia as well as Florida, but that's neither here nor there. If Obama is able to carry Virginia, then Romney's path to the White House gets obviously tougher, and our night gets obviously shorter. So what's the deal in Virginia? Why is the race so close? Is it just early exit poll jitters? I am going to take the safe bet and assume that is the case. I believe that while Virginia might still go Republican at the end of the night, it might act like a litmus test for less contested states, or for states that expected high Republican turnout, showing perhaps a pattern of raised Obama competitiveness in states that may not have seemed like it this morning. Again, your thoughts can go directly on the Academy Facebook Page.
Session Update #2 3:55PM PST
Here is the first legitimate update of the night. The polls now show that Kentucky and Indiana are the first states to begin reporting any sort of results. As expected there is a sharp boost for these two historically Red states early in the exit polls, but the important question here goes back to Indiana. Indiana has been made infamous in the late weeks of the campaign because of Republican Senate Candidate Richard Mourdock's statements regarding rape. He too, so far, is ahead in early exit polls, although he had lost significant ground to his Democratic opponent before the election went live. So here is my question to you, did Mourdock's comments on rape have any effect on the Indiana race considering his current lead? Follow us on the Academy Facebook Page to answer and follow the conversation on there!
Session Update #1 3:30PM PST
So here we go! Thanks to everyone who is visiting tonight from the United States and around the world. The premise here is simple; news comes in, analysis comes out. Hopefully, discussion follows and we all get to have our say beyond what the TV networks have time for. As a bit of info, the first polls to close will be on the East Coast at 7:00PM EST, notable states are Virginia and Florida among others of course. The next main time to watch will be 7:30PM EST when Ohio and North Carolina close. So far, with what little results have come in, it seems that we still do not know who the next President of the United States is. I apologize for not being able to give you that information as of yet.
Pre-Session Update 12:30PM PST
Before the results start coming in, I'd like to share some thoughts about the prediction game heading into the election. Normally, pundits will turn to a giant map of the United States and begin shuffling around states one way or another in order to make sense of all the possible outcomes. There is generally a better way to actually predict these things, if there is a way to predict elections at all. InTrade is a stock market for probabilities, and it is generally regarded as one of the best if not the best (in terms of reliability) of its kind. While this is not an advertising spot for InTrade, it does give you generally a better understanding of what the chances are of something happening because people stand to make money off of it, meaning that their analysis normally goes beyond just "what could happen" and instead delves into "what should happen given the fact I'm invested in this". As of last night, the stock of an Obama Win has been slowly rising, and it looks poised to head that way into the night. It will be interesting to see how several states and their results change up buyer confidence on InTrade and other sites like it throughout the night.
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